Labour Economics
How Uncompetitive Markets Hurt Workers (2023) Australian Journal of Labour Economics, 26(1): 1-22.
“Beauty Too Rich for Use”: Billionaires’ Assets and Attractiveness 2022 (with Daniel Hamermesh), Labour Economics, 73, article 102153 (working paper version: IZA DP 14762)
Unpacking the Beauty Premium: What Channels Does It Operate Through, and Has It Changed Over Time? 2014 (with Jeff Borland), Economic Record 90 (288), 17-32
Crime and Mental Wellbeing (with Francesca Cornaglia and Naomi Feldman), Journal of Human Resources, 2014
Effects of Temporary In-Work Benefits for Welfare Recipients: Examination of the Australian Working Credit Programme (with Roger Wilkins) Fiscal Studies, 2012
Which Children Benefit From Non-Parental Care? (with Chikako Yamauchi), Economics of Education Review, 2011
Informal Care and Labor Market Participation, Labour Economics, 2010
Do Employers Discriminate by Gender? A Field Experiment in Female-Dominated Occupations (with Alison Booth), Economics Letters, 2010
Does Racial and Ethnic Discrimination Vary Across Minority Groups? Evidence From a Field Experiment (with Alison Booth and Elena Varganova), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2012
Does Maternal Age Affect Children’s Test Scores? (with Xiaodong Gong), Australian Economic Review, 2010
Does Size Matter in Australia? (with Michael Kortt), Economic Record, 2010
Who Benefits from the Earned Income Tax Credit? Incidence Among Recipients, Coworkers and Firms, B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy (Advances), 2010
Does Raising the Minimum Wage Help the Poor?, Economic Record, 2007
Earned Income Tax Credits and Labor Supply: New Evidence from a British Natural Experiment, National Tax Journal, 2007
Employment Effects of Minimum Wages: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment, Australian Economic Review, 2003
Erratum, Australian Economic Review, March 2004
Reply, Australian Economic Review, June 2004
Inequality
Inequality and Market Concentration: New Evidence from Australia (with Lachlan Hotchin) (2024) Review of Income and Wealth, 70(4): 1216-1225.
Health Inequalities in the COVID Pandemic: Evidence from Australia (2022) Australian Population Studies, 6(2): 33-44.
Engaged Egalitarianism: Why the Australian Recovery Must Prioritise Openness (2022) Economic Papers, 41(2): 99-109.
Common Ownership of Competing Firms: Evidence from Australia (2021) (with Adam Triggs), Economic Record, 97(318): 333–349 (IZA Discussion Paper 14287, CESifo Working Paper No. 9018)
This Time it’s Ideological! (2021) Œconomia 11(1): 135-142.
Frontiers of mobility: Was Australia 1870–2017 a more socially mobile society than England? (with Gregory Clark and Mike Pottenger), Explorations in Economic History, 2020
Inequality and Market Concentration, When Shareholding Is More Skewed Than Consumption (with Joshua Gans, Martin Schmalz and Adam Triggs), Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2019
The Distribution of Top Incomes in Five Anglo-Saxon Countries Over the Long-Run (with Tony Atkinson), Economic Record, 2013
Stata dataset and dofile (zipped)
Intergenerational Income Mobility in Urban China (with Cathy Gong and Xin Meng), Review of Income and Wealth, 2012
Do Rising Top Incomes Lift All Boats? (with Dan Andrews and Christopher Jencks), B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2011
Death, Dollars and Degrees: Socio-economic Status and Longevity in Australia (with Philip Clarke) Economic Papers, 2011
Inequality in Indonesia: What Can We Learn from Top Incomes? (with Pierre van der Eng) Journal of Public Economics, 2009
Top Incomes in Indonesia 1920-2004 (with Pierre van der Eng) in A.B. Atkinson and T. Piketty (eds) Top Incomes Over the Twentieth Century: Volume II – A Global Perspective, Oxford University Press, 2009
Health and Economic Inequality (with Christopher Jencks and Timothy Smeeding), in W. Salverda, B. Nolan, and T. Smeeding (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Economic Inequality, 2009
Top Incomes, in W. Salverda, B. Nolan, and T. Smeeding (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Economic Inequality, 2009
Top Incomes and National Savings (with Alberto Posso), Review of Income and Wealth, 2009
How Closely Do Top Income Shares Track Other Measures of Inequality?, Economic Journal, 2007
Intergenerational Mobility in Australia, Berkeley Electronic Press: Contributions in Economic Analysis and Policy, 2007
More Inequality, Less Social Mobility (with Dan Andrews), Applied Economics Letters, 2008
Do Redistributive State Taxes Reduce Inequality?, National Tax Journal, 2008
Top Incomes in New Zealand 1921-2005: Understanding the Effects of Marginal Tax Rates, Migration Threat, and the Macroeconomy (with Tony Atkinson), Review of Income and Wealth, 2008
Inequality and Mortality: Long-Run Evidence from a Panel of Countries (with Christopher Jencks), Journal of Health Economics, 2007
The Distribution of Top Incomes in Australia (with Tony Atkinson), Economic Record, 2007
Deriving Long-Run Inequality Series from Tax Data, Economic Record, 2005
Trust, Inequality, and Ethnic Heterogeneity, Economic Record, 2006
Does Equality Lead to Fraternity?, Economics Letters, 2006
Returns to Education in Australia 2001-2022 (2025) Economic Papers, 44(1): 62-76.
Australian Mobility Report Cards: Which Universities Admit the Most Disadvantaged Students? (2021) Australian Economic Review, 54(3): 331-342.
Do School Principals Respond to Increased Public Scrutiny? New Survey Evidence from Australia (with Michael Coelli and Gigi Foster), Economic Record, 2018
The Economics and Politics of Teacher Merit Pay, CESifo Economic Studies, 2012
Teacher Pay and Teacher Aptitude, Economics of Education Review, 2012
Long-Run Trends in School Productivity: Evidence From Australia (with Chris Ryan), Education Finance and Policy, 2010
Estimating Teacher Effectiveness From Two-Year Changes in Students’ Test Scores, Economics of Education Review, 2010
The Impact of the Tax-Transfer System on Education and Skills in Australia, Report prepared for the Australian Treasury’s Australia’s Future Tax System Review, 2009
How Much of the Variation in Literacy and Numeracy can be Explained by School Performance? (with Hector Thompson), Economic Roundup, 2008
Estimating Cognitive Gaps Between Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians (with Xiaodong Gong), Education Economics, 2008
How and Why has Teacher Quality Changed in Australia? (with Chris Ryan), Australian Economic Review, 2008
How Much Do Public Schools Really Cost? Estimating the Relationship Between House Prices and School Quality (with Ian Davidoff), Economic Record, 2008
Do Very High Tax Rates Induce Bunching? Implications for the Design of Income-Contingent Loan Schemes (with Bruce Chapman), Economic Record, 2009
Returns to Education in Australia, Economic Papers, 2008
Estimating Returns to Education Using Different Natural Experiment Techniques (with Chris Ryan), Economics of Education Review, 2008
Pulled Away or Pushed Out? Explaining the Decline of Teacher Aptitude in the United States (with Caroline Hoxby), American Economic Review, 2004 ( Education Next version, Spring 2005)
Macroeconmics & Political Economy
The Progressive Productivity Agenda (2025), Australian Economic Review, 58(4): 317-324.
The Case for Randomised Trials (and Why Big Data Does Not Supersede Randomisation) (2025), Australian Economic Review, 58(3): 251-258.
Bumps and Breakthroughs: The Journey of Australia’s Merger Reforms (with Annalisa Heger and Jessica Kwong) (2025), Competition and Consumer Law Journal, 31(2): 185-202.
Using Numerical Anomalies to Test for Fraud in Colonial New South Wales Elections (2024) Australian Journal of Politics and History, 70(4): 834-837.
Using Artificial Intelligence for Economic Research: An Agricultural Odyssey (2024) Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 68(3): 521-529.
Ten Lessons for Economic Policymakers (2024), Economic Papers, 43(2): 105-111.
The Democratic Virtues of Randomized Trials (with Ana Tanasoca) (2024) Moral Philosophy and Politics, 11(1): 113-140.
Advancing Deliberative Reform in a Parliamentary System: Prospects for Recursive Representation (with Nardine Alnemr, Selen Ercan, Nick Vlahos, John Dryzek and Michael Neblo) (2023) European Political Science Review.
Evaluating Policy Impact: Working Out What Works (2023) Australian Economic Review, 56(4): 431-441.
Competition and Artificial Intelligence: An Australian Policy Perspective (2023) CPI TechREG Chronicle, December.
The Best Medicine: Lessons From Health for Policy Randomistas (2024) Evaluation Journal of Australasia, 24(1): 6-13.
Data and Evaluation: A Match Made in Policy Heaven (2024) Australian Journal of Social Issues, 59(1): 20-28.
Market Power and Markups: Malign Markers for the Australian Macroeconomy (2023), Australian Economic Papers, 62(3): 567-574.
A Zippier Economy: Lessons from the 1992 Hilmer Competition Reforms (2023), Economic Papers, 42(3): 229-235.
Economic Dynamism: A Global Perspective (2022) Competition and Consumer Law Journal, 29: 193-200.
A More Dynamic Economy (2022), Australian Economic Review, 55(4): 431-440 (working paper version: IZA Policy Paper 193).
Assessing Australian Monetary Policy in the Twenty-First Century (with Isaac Gross) (2022) Economic Record, 98(322): 271-295 (working paper version: IZA DP 15561).
Political Gold: The Australian Sports Grants Scandal (with Ian McAllister) (2023) Political Studies, 71(4), 1110-1128.
Putting the Australian Economy on the Scales, 2021, Australian Economic Review, 54(1): 19-35.
Do firms that pay less company tax create more jobs? 2018, Economic Analysis and Policy, 59, pp.25-28.
Reply: Do firms that pay less company tax create more jobs?, 2018, Economic Analysis and Policy, 59, pp. 113-115
How behavioural economics does and can shape public policy, 2015, Economic and Labour Relations Review 26 (2), 339-346
The Predictive Power of Political Pundits: Prescient or Pitiful?, 2013 (with Phillip Metaxas) Media International Australia, 147(1), 5-17 (CESifo Working Paper 4261)
How Partisan is the Press? Multiple Measures of Media Slant (with Joshua Gans), Economic Record, 2012
How Do Stamp Duties Affect the Housing Market?, 2009
How Much Did the 2009 Australian Fiscal Stimulus Boost Demand? Evidence from Household-Reported Spending Effects, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012
Can national infrastructure spending reduce local unemployment? Evidence from an Australian roads program (with Christine Neill), Economic Letters, 2011
Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change? (with Paul Burke), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2010
Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Evidence from Australia (with Mark McLeish), Economic Record, 2009
Is Voting Skin-Deep? Estimating the Effect of Candidate Ballot Photographs on Election Outcomes (with Tirta Susilo), Journal of Economic Psychology, 2009
Bias at the Ballot Box? Testing Whether Candidates’ Gender Affects Their Vote (with Amy King), Social Science Quarterly, 2010
Beautiful Politicians (with Amy King), Kyklos, 2009
Are Ballot Order Effects Heterogeneous? (with Amy King), Social Science Quarterly, 2008
Bringing Home the Bacon, Public Choice, 2008
How Do Unionists Vote? Estimating the Causal Impact of Union Membership on Voting Behaviour from 1966 to 2004, Australian Journal of Political Science, 2006
Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets (with Justin Wolfers), Economic Record, 2006
Estimating the Impact of Gubernatorial Partisanship on Policy Settings and Economic Outcomes: A Regression Discontinuity Approach, European Journal of Political Economy, 2008
Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?,Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2009
Happiness and the Human Development Index: Australia is Not a Paradox (with Justin Wolfers), Australian Economic Review, 2006
Economic Voting and Electoral Behavior: How do Individual, Local and National Factors Affect the Partisan Choice?, Economics and Politics, 2005
What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq? (with Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz), 2003
Three Tools for Forecasting Federal Elections: Lessons from 2001 (with Justin Wolfers) Australian Journal of Political Science, 2002
The Rise of Social Media and the Fall in Mental Wellbeing among Young Australians (2025) (with Stephen Robson), Australian Economic Review
Leafy Localities, Longer Lives: A Cross-Sectional and Spatial Analysis (2024) (with Gweneth Leigh), Landscape and Urban Planning, Volume 242, Article 104947.
How COVID Changed the World of Data(2023) Australian Population Studies, 7(1): 17-19.
Understanding the Impact of Lockdowns on Short-Term Excess Mortality in Australia (with Philip Clarke) (2022) BMJ Global Health, vol.7, article e009032.
Response to critique of “Understanding the Impact of Lockdowns on Short-Term Excess Mortality in Australia” (with Philip Clarke) (2023) BMJ Global Health, vol. 8, article e013595.
Estimating Long-Run Incarceration Rates for Australia, Canada, England & Wales, New Zealand and the United States, Australian Economic History Review, 2020
The Second Convict Age: Explaining the Return of Mass Imprisonment in Australia, Economic Record, 2020
Doctor’s Dilemma: All Care Possible Versus Cost (with Stephen Robson), Medical Journal of Australia, Insight, Issue 30, 5 August 2019
The Misaddressed Letter Experiment (with Gweneth Leigh), Applied Economics Letters, 2018
Immigrants Assimilate as Communities, Not Just as Individuals (with Tim Hatton), Journal of Population Economics, 2011
Born on the First of July: An (Un)natural Experiment in Birth Timing (with Joshua Gans), Journal of Public Economics, 2009
Do Gun Buybacks Save Lives? Evidence from Panel Data (with Christine Neill), American Law and Economics Review, 2010
Do Gun Buybacks Save Lives? Evidence from Time Series Variation (with Christine Neill), Current Issues in Criminal Justice, 2008
Minding the Shop: The Case of Obstetrics Conferences (with Joshua Gans and Elena Varganova), Social Science and Medicine, 2007
Did the Death of Australian Inheritance Taxes Affect Deaths? (with Joshua Gans), Berkeley Electronic Press: Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy, 2006
Toying with Death and Taxes: Some Lessons from Down Under (with Joshua Gans), The Economists’ Voice, 2006
Bargaining Over Labor: Do Patients have any Power? (with Joshua Gans), Economic Record, 2012
The Millennium Bub (with Joshua Gans), Applied Economics Letters, 2008
Does the Lunar Cycle Affect Birth and Deaths? (with Joshua Gans), 2006
Does Child Gender Affect Marital Status?, Journal of Population Economics, 2008
Materialism on the March: From Conspicuous Leisure to Conspicuous Consumption? (with Paul Frijters), Journal of Socio-Economics, 2008
Popular economics writing (see also op-eds and book reviews)
What Can Economics and Sociology Learn From One Another?, Slides from a plenary presentation to the 2009 Australian Sociological Association conference
Letter in response to Noel Pearson’s Quarterly Essay (“Radical Hope: Education and Equality in Australia”), Quarterly Essay 36, 2009
Evidence-Based Policy: Summon the Randomistas? Paper delivered to a Productivity Commission Roundtable on ‘Strengthening Evidence-Based Policy in the Australian Federation’, 2009
Socio-Economic Correlates of Body Size Among Australian Adults (with Michael Kortt) HILDA Statistical Report, 2009
What Evidence Should Social Policymakers Use? Economic Roundup, 2009
How Can We Improve Teacher Quality?, Melbourne Review, 2007
Prediction Markets for Business and Public Policy (with Justin Wolfers), Melbourne Review, 2007
Unusual Days in Births and Deaths (with Joshua Gans), Melbourne Review, 2007
Taxpaying Made Easy, Agenda: A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, 2007
Diversity, Trust and Redistribution, Dialogue (Journal of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia), 2006
Political Economy of Tax Reform in Australia, Public Policy, 2006
Growth Matters, Aurora Magazine, July 2006
Making the Grade, Griffith Review, 2006
Three Ideas on Tax Reform, Progressive Essays, February 2006 (Op-Ed version,The Age, 3 March 2006)
Why the Australian Capital Territory Should Offer Wage Subsidies to Low-Skilled Workers, 2005
A Household Analysis of the Tax Cuts Proposed in the 2005 Budget
The Progressive Case for Reforming Australia’s Schools, Progressive Essays, July 2005
Lifting Teacher Performance (with Sara Mead)
The Decline of an Institution, Australian Financial Review, 7 March 2005 (Economics Briefing series)
Continental Drift, a review essay discussing Alberto Alesina and Edward Glaeser, Fighting Poverty in the US and Europe: A World of Difference. Published in the Australian Financial Review, 3 December 2004
Randomised Policy Trials (published in Agenda: A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, December 2003)
Economics, Experiments and Psychology (with Justin Wolfers), Quadrant, January/February 2003
Fair Play from Foul, AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, May/June 2002
Moving to Opportunity (with Justin Wolfers), AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, September/October 2001
Globalisation and Deglobalisation, AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, January/February 2001
Abortion and Crime (with Justin Wolfers), AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, August 2000
Discussion of Hellerstein, Neumark and McInerney, Spatial Mismatch or Racial Mismatch?, Labour Econometrics Workshop, Wellington, 10 August 2007
Discussion of Poot & Sanderson, Changes in Social Security Eligibility and the International Mobility of New Zealand Citizens to Australia, An International Perspective on Immigration and Immigration Policy Conference, ANU, 1 December 2006
Discussion of Skladzien, Strategic Interaction Between Corrupt Governments in a Growth Model, PhD Conference, ANU, 10 November 2006 (received best discussant award)
Discussion of Doiron & Gørgens, State dependence in youth labor market experiences and the evaluation of policy interventions, Labour Econometrics Workshop, University of South Australia, 11 August 2006
Discussion of Sin & Stillman, The Geographical Mobility of Maori in New Zealand, Labour Econometrics Workshop, UNSW, 12 August 2005
Discussion of Fertig & Kluve, “The Effect of Age at School Entry on Educational Attainment in Germany”, presented at the Social Policy Evaluation Annual Conference, Canberra, 23 February 2005.
Comment on Hans Hvide and Todd Kaplan, “Delegated Job Design“, presented at the Society of Labor Economists annual conference, San Antonio, Texas, 30 April 2004.
Power Readers (with Macgregor Duncan), Australian Literary Review, 3 March 2010 (supplementary tables)
Entry on Trends in Social Capital, prepared for Karen Christensen and David Levinson (eds) Encyclopedia of Community: From the Village to the Virtual World, 2003
Reviving Community: What policy-makers can do to build social capital in Britain and America (with Robert Putnam). Renewal. 10(2). 2002
Bowling Along. Australian Policy Online. May 2002
Leadership and Aboriginal Reconciliation (text only), Australian Journal of Social Issues, May 2002
Breaking Down Bureaucratic Barriers: The Next Phase of Digital Government (with Robert D. Atkinson), Progressive Policy Institute, November 2001.
Clear Thinking on the Digital Divide (with Robert D. Atkinson), Progressive Policy Institute, June 2001
Mandatory High Court Retirement System works in Australia, National Law Journal, 6 January 2006
Entry on Associates, prepared for Tony Blackshield, Michael Coper and George Williams (eds), The Oxford Companion to the High Court of Australia, 2001
Entry on Tenure, prepared for Tony Blackshield, Michael Coper and George Williams (eds), The Oxford Companion to the High Court of Australia, 2001
Behind the Bench: Associates in the High Court of Australia, Alternative Law Journal, December 2000
The successful Attorney-General – an oxymoron? Australian Law Journal, February 1999
Youth and Street Racing, Current Issues in Criminal Justice, March 1995 (interview transcript and images from an unfinished documentary on street racing)
Drag Kings, Sydney Morning Herald, 24 September 1993
Reinvigorating the Australian Project, Garran Oration, Australian Journal of Public Administration, March 2005
Imagining Australia: Ideas for Our Future . Co-authored with Macgregor Duncan, David Madden and Peter Tynan. Published by Allen and Unwin, Sydney, 2004.
The Best and Worst of the United States (with Justin Wolfers), AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, Sept-Oct 2003
The Rise and Fall of the Third Way, AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, March-April 2003
Thinking Ahead: Strategic Foresight and Government, Australian Journal of Public Administration, June 2003
Trade Liberalisation and the Australian Labor Party, Australian Journal of Politics and History, December 2002
The Prince’s New Clothes: Why do Australians Dislike their Politicians?(table of contents only). Co-edited with David Burchell. Published by UNSW Press, Sydney, February 2002.
Factions and Fractions: A Case Study of Power Politics in the Australian Labor Party, Australian Journal of Political Science, November 2000
Globalisation and Deglobalisation, AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, January/February 2001
Australian Politics 1983-2003, Let’s Go Australia 2004, St Martin’s Press, New York
Speeches (pre-2010)
Evidence-Based Criminal Justice Policy: Summon the Randomistas?, Speech to the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research 40th Anniversary Symposium, 19 February 2009
Constitutional Reform, Then and Now, Speech to ACT Australian Republican Movement dinner, 2 June 2007