Labour Economics

Effects of Temporary In-Work Benefits for Welfare Recipients: Examination of the Australian Working Credit Programme (with Roger Wilkins) Fiscal Studies, 2012


Which Children Benefit From Non-Parental Care? (with Chikako Yamauchi), Economics of Education Review, 2011


Informal Care and Labor Market Participation, Labour Economics, 2010


Do Employers Discriminate by Gender? A Field Experiment in Female-Dominated Occupations (with Alison Booth), Economics Letters, 2010


Does Racial and Ethnic Discrimination Vary Across Minority Groups? Evidence From a Field Experiment (with Alison Booth and Elena Varganova), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2012


Does Maternal Age Affect Children’s Test Scores? (with Xiaodong Gong), Australian Economic Review, 2010


Does Size Matter in Australia? (with Michael Kortt), Economic Record, 2010


Who Benefits from the Earned Income Tax Credit? Incidence Among Recipients, Coworkers and Firms, B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy (Advances), 2010


Does Raising the Minimum Wage Help the Poor?, Economic Record, 2007


Earned Income Tax Credits and Labor Supply: New Evidence from a British Natural Experiment, National Tax Journal, 2007


Employment Effects of Minimum Wages: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment, Australian Economic Review, 2003

Erratum, Australian Economic Review, March 2004

Reply, Australian Economic Review, June 2004



The Distribution of Top Incomes in Five Anglo-Saxon Countries Over the Long-Run (with Tony Atkinson), Economic Record, 2013

Discussion Paper Version

Stata dataset and dofile (zipped)


Intergenerational Income Mobility in Urban China (with Cathy Gong and Xin Meng), Review of Income and Wealth, 2012


Do Rising Top Incomes Lift All Boats? (with Dan Andrews and Christopher Jencks), B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2011


Death, Dollars and Degrees: Socio-economic Status and Longevity in Australia (with Philip Clarke) Economic Papers, 2011


Inequality in Indonesia: What Can We Learn from Top Incomes? (with Pierre van der Eng) Journal of Public Economics, 2009


Top Incomes in Indonesia 1920-2004 (with Pierre van der Eng) in A.B. Atkinson and T. Piketty (eds) Top Incomes Over the Twentieth Century: Volume II – A Global Perspective, Oxford University Press, 2009


Health and Economic Inequality (with Christopher Jencks and Timothy Smeeding), in W. Salverda, B. Nolan, and T. Smeeding (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Economic Inequality, 2009


Top Incomes, in W. Salverda, B. Nolan, and T. Smeeding (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Economic Inequality, 2009


Top Incomes and National Savings (with Alberto Posso), Review of Income and Wealth, 2009


How Closely Do Top Income Shares Track Other Measures of Inequality?, Economic Journal, 2007


Intergenerational Mobility in Australia, Berkeley Electronic Press: Contributions in Economic Analysis and Policy, 2007


More Inequality, Less Social Mobility (with Dan Andrews), Applied Economics Letters, 2008


Do Redistributive State Taxes Reduce Inequality?, National Tax Journal, 2008


Top Incomes in New Zealand 1921-2005: Understanding the Effects of Marginal Tax Rates, Migration Threat, and the Macroeconomy (with Tony Atkinson), Review of Income and Wealth, 2008


Inequality and Mortality: Long-Run Evidence from a Panel of Countries (with Christopher Jencks), Journal of Health Economics, 2007


The Distribution of Top Incomes in Australia (with Tony Atkinson), Economic Record, 2007


Deriving Long-Run Inequality Series from Tax Data, Economic Record, 2005


Trust, Inequality, and Ethnic Heterogeneity,  Economic Record, 2006


Does Equality Lead to Fraternity?, Economics Letters, 2006


Economics of Education

The Economics and Politics of Teacher Merit Pay, CESifo Economic Studies, 2012


Teacher Pay and Teacher Aptitude, Economics of Education Review, 2012


Long-Run Trends in School Productivity: Evidence From Australia (with Chris Ryan), Education Finance and Policy, 2010


Estimating Teacher Effectiveness From Two-Year Changes in Students’ Test Scores, Economics of Education Review, 2010


The Impact of the Tax-Transfer System on Education and Skills in Australia, Report prepared for the Australian Treasury’s Australia’s Future Tax System Review, 2009


How Much of the Variation in Literacy and Numeracy can be Explained by School Performance? (with Hector Thompson), Economic Roundup, 2008


Estimating Cognitive Gaps Between Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians (with Xiaodong Gong), Education Economics, 2008


How and Why has Teacher Quality Changed in Australia? (with Chris Ryan), Australian Economic Review, 2008


How Much Do Public Schools Really Cost? Estimating the Relationship Between House Prices and School Quality (with Ian Davidoff), Economic Record, 2008


Do Very High Tax Rates Induce Bunching? Implications for the Design of Income-Contingent Loan Schemes (with Bruce Chapman), Economic Record, 2009


Returns to Education in Australia, Economic Papers, 2008


Estimating Returns to Education Using Different Natural Experiment Techniques (with Chris Ryan), Economics of Education Review, 2008


Pulled Away or Pushed Out? Explaining the Decline of Teacher Aptitude in the United States (with Caroline Hoxby), American Economic Review, 2004 ( Education Next version, Spring 2005)


Economics and Politics

How Partisan is the Press? Multiple Measures of Media Slant (with Joshua Gans), Economic Record, 2012


How Do Stamp Duties Affect the Housing Market?, 2009


How Much Did the 2009 Australian Fiscal Stimulus Boost Demand? Evidence from Household-Reported Spending Effects, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012


Can national infrastructure spending reduce local unemployment? Evidence from an Australian roads program (with Christine Neill), Economic Letters, 2011


Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change? (with Paul Burke), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2010


Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Evidence from Australia (with Mark McLeish), Economic Record, 2009


Is Voting Skin-Deep? Estimating the Effect of Candidate Ballot Photographs on Election Outcomes (with Tirta Susilo), Journal of Economic Psychology, 2009


Bias at the Ballot Box? Testing Whether Candidates' Gender Affects Their Vote (with Amy King), Social Science Quarterly, 2010


Beautiful Politicians (with Amy King), Kyklos, 2009


Are Ballot Order Effects Heterogeneous? (with Amy King), Social Science Quarterly, 2008


Bringing Home the Bacon, Public Choice, 2008


How Do Unionists Vote? Estimating the Causal Impact of Union Membership on Voting Behaviour from 1966 to 2004, Australian Journal of Political Science, 2006


Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets (with Justin Wolfers), Economic Record, 2006


Estimating the Impact of Gubernatorial Partisanship on Policy Settings and Economic Outcomes: A Regression Discontinuity Approach, European Journal of Political Economy, 2008


Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?,Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2009


Happiness and the Human Development Index: Australia is Not a Paradox (with Justin Wolfers), Australian Economic Review, 2006


Economic Voting and Electoral Behavior: How do Individual, Local and National Factors Affect the Partisan Choice?, Economics and Politics, 2005


What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq? (with Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz), 2003


Three Tools for Forecasting Federal Elections: Lessons from 2001 (with Justin Wolfers) Australian Journal of Political Science, 2002


Population Economics

Immigrants Assimilate as Communities, Not Just as Individuals (with Tim Hatton), Journal of Population Economics, 2011


Born on the First of July: An (Un)natural Experiment in Birth Timing (with Joshua Gans), Journal of Public Economics, 2009


Do Gun Buybacks Save Lives? Evidence from Panel Data (with Christine Neill), American Law and Economics Review, 2010


Do Gun Buybacks Save Lives? Evidence from Time Series Variation (with Christine Neill), Current Issues in Criminal Justice, 2008


Minding the Shop: The Case of Obstetrics Conferences (with Joshua Gans and Elena Varganova), Social Science and Medicine, 2007


Did the Death of Australian Inheritance Taxes Affect Deaths? (with Joshua Gans), Berkeley Electronic Press: Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy, 2006


Toying with Death and Taxes: Some Lessons from Down Under (with Joshua Gans), The Economists' Voice, 2006


Bargaining Over Labor: Do Patients have any Power? (with Joshua Gans), Economic Record, 2012


The Millennium Bub (with Joshua Gans), Applied Economics Letters, 2008


Does the Lunar Cycle Affect Birth and Deaths? (with Joshua Gans), 2006

Does Child Gender Affect Marital Status?, Journal of Population Economics, 2008


Materialism on the March: From Conspicuous Leisure to Conspicuous Consumption? (with Paul Frijters), Journal of Socio-Economics, 2008


Popular economics writing (see also op-eds and book reviews)

What Can Economics and Sociology Learn From One Another?, Slides from a plenary presentation to the 2009 Australian Sociological Association conference

Letter in response to Noel Pearson’s Quarterly Essay (“Radical Hope: Education and Equality in Australia”), Quarterly Essay 36, 2009

Evidence-Based Policy: Summon the Randomistas? Paper delivered to a Productivity Commission Roundtable on ‘Strengthening Evidence-Based Policy in the Australian Federation’, 2009

Socio-Economic Correlates of Body Size Among Australian Adults (with Michael Kortt) HILDA Statistical Report, 2009

What Evidence Should Social Policymakers Use? Economic Roundup, 2009

How Can We Improve Teacher Quality?, Melbourne Review, 2007

Prediction Markets for Business and Public Policy (with Justin Wolfers), Melbourne Review, 2007

Unusual Days in Births and Deaths (with Joshua Gans), Melbourne Review, 2007

Taxpaying Made Easy, Agenda: A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, 2007
Diversity, Trust and Redistribution, Dialogue (Journal of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia), 2006
Political Economy of Tax Reform in Australia, Public Policy, 2006
Growth Matters, Aurora Magazine, July 2006
Making the Grade, Griffith Review, 2006
Three Ideas on Tax Reform, Progressive Essays, February 2006 (Op-Ed version,The Age, 3 March 2006)

Why the Australian Capital Territory Should Offer Wage Subsidies to Low-Skilled Workers, 2005

A Household Analysis of the Tax Cuts Proposed in the 2005 Budget

The Progressive Case for Reforming Australia’s Schools, Progressive Essays, July 2005

Lifting Teacher Performance (with Sara Mead)

The Decline of an Institution, Australian Financial Review, 7 March 2005 (Economics Briefing series)

Continental Drift, a review essay discussing Alberto Alesina and Edward Glaeser, Fighting Poverty in the US and Europe: A World of Difference. Published in the Australian Financial Review, 3 December 2004

Randomised Policy Trials (published in Agenda: A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, December 2003)

Economics, Experiments and Psychology (with Justin Wolfers), Quadrant, January/February 2003

Fair Play from Foul, AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, May/June 2002

Moving to Opportunity (with Justin Wolfers), AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, September/October 2001

Globalisation and Deglobalisation, AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, January/February 2001

Abortion and Crime (with Justin Wolfers), AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, August 2000 


Conference Discussions

Discussion of Hellerstein, Neumark and McInerney, Spatial Mismatch or Racial Mismatch?, Labour Econometrics Workshop, Wellington, 10 August 2007

Discussion of Poot & Sanderson, Changes in Social Security Eligibility and the International Mobility of New Zealand Citizens to Australia, An International Perspective on Immigration and Immigration Policy Conference, ANU, 1 December 2006

Discussion of Skladzien, Strategic Interaction Between Corrupt Governments in a Growth Model, PhD Conference, ANU, 10 November 2006 (received best discussant award)

Discussion of Doiron & Gørgens, State dependence in youth labor market experiences and the evaluation of policy interventions, Labour Econometrics Workshop, University of South Australia, 11 August 2006

Discussion of Sin & Stillman, The Geographical Mobility of Maori in New Zealand, Labour Econometrics Workshop, UNSW, 12 August 2005

Discussion of Fertig & Kluve, “The Effect of Age at School Entry on Educational Attainment in Germany”, presented at the Social Policy Evaluation Annual Conference, Canberra, 23 February 2005.

Comment on Hans Hvide and Todd Kaplan, "Delegated Job Design", presented at the Society of Labor Economists annual conference, San Antonio, Texas, 30 April 2004.


Non Economics Writings

Power Readers (with Macgregor Duncan), Australian Literary Review, 3 March 2010 (supplementary tables)

Entry on Trends in Social Capital, prepared for Karen Christensen and David Levinson (eds) Encyclopedia of Community: From the Village to the Virtual World, 2003

Reviving Community: What policy-makers can do to build social capital in Britain and America (with Robert Putnam). Renewal. 10(2). 2002

Bowling Along. Australian Policy Online. May 2002

Leadership and Aboriginal Reconciliation (text only), Australian Journal of Social Issues, May 2002

Breaking Down Bureaucratic Barriers: The Next Phase of Digital Government (with Robert D. Atkinson), Progressive Policy Institute, November 2001.

Clear Thinking on the Digital Divide (with Robert D. Atkinson), Progressive Policy Institute, June 2001

Mandatory High Court Retirement System works in Australia, National Law Journal, 6 January 2006

Entry on Associates, prepared for Tony Blackshield, Michael Coper and George Williams (eds), The Oxford Companion to the High Court of Australia, 2001

Entry on Tenure, prepared for Tony Blackshield, Michael Coper and George Williams (eds), The Oxford Companion to the High Court of Australia, 2001

Behind the Bench: Associates in the High Court of Australia, Alternative Law Journal, December 2000

The successful Attorney-General – an oxymoron? Australian Law Journal, February 1999

Youth and Street Racing, Current Issues in Criminal Justice, March 1995 (interview transcript and images from an unfinished documentary on street racing)

Drag Kings, Sydney Morning Herald, 24 September 1993

Reinvigorating the Australian Project, Garran Oration, Australian Journal of Public Administration, March 2005

Imagining Australia: Ideas for Our Future . Co-authored with Macgregor Duncan, David Madden and Peter Tynan. Published by Allen and Unwin, Sydney, 2004.

The Best and Worst of the United States (with Justin Wolfers), AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, Sept-Oct 2003

The Rise and Fall of the Third Way, AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, March-April 2003

Thinking Ahead: Strategic Foresight and Government, Australian Journal of Public Administration, June 2003

Trade Liberalisation and the Australian Labor Party, Australian Journal of Politics and History, December 2002

The Prince's New Clothes: Why do Australians Dislike their Politicians?(table of contents only). Co-edited with David Burchell. Published by UNSW Press, Sydney, February 2002.

Factions and Fractions: A Case Study of Power Politics in the Australian Labor Party, Australian Journal of Political Science, November 2000

Globalisation and Deglobalisation, AQ: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, January/February 2001

Australian Politics 1983-2003, Let's Go Australia 2004, St Martin's Press, New York



Evidence-Based Criminal Justice Policy: Summon the Randomistas?, Speech to the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research 40th Anniversary Symposium, 19 February 2009

Constitutional Reform, Then and Now, Speech to ACT Australian Republican Movement dinner, 2 June 2007